New Era in Tampa Bay
Despite Antonio Brown's negative takes on Kangol Hats in recent weeks which really upset me, I mean look at them they're amazingly fashionable and awesome; Kangol Hats are becoming really popular in Southwest Florida as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers recently signed Bruce Arians to a four year deal with a fifth year as an option. This coming after 2 miserable seasons with Dirk Koetter at the helm finishing 3 years in Tampa with a 19-29 record. After a promising 2016, the Buccaneers offense plummeted and the defense.... oh let's not even go there.. I think we all know how bad Tampa's defense was this past year. I mean I shudder to think that Mitch Trubisky threw for 6 TDs against them that's how bad it was. Two straight 5-11 seasons are unacceptable for the talent on that team and just watching the Bucs this year was painful. Fitzmagic gave Bucs fans early season hope and like he always does when there are expectations, quickly faltered on a Monday Night Football game against the Steelers. Then the endless QB carousel between Fitzpatrick and Jameis began with one starting and the other finishing the game. It seemed to go on week after week until the Bucs finally settled on Jameis in Week 11 and rode him all the way to the end of the season.
Somehow it seemed to me like Koetter never believed Jameis was the guy to begin with and the Hark Knocks encounters between them when the cameras were on showed that. The rotating door at the QB position also added speculation Koetter was trying to save his job by pinning most of the struggles on Jameis' inability to properly read defensive schemes and make the right reads and throws to not hurt the team in key situations. Koetter has a point but the inability to show Jameis the confidence in him that was needed for a head coach seemed to clout his mind and judgement at times. But Jameis is super talented as evidenced by being the #1 selection in the 2015 NFL Draft and I believe with the right coach he can succeed in a QB friendly offense like the ones Bruce Arians has deployed over the years. There is a reason why Arians is referred to as the QB whisperer having worked with the likes of Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, and Carson Palmer. We'll get to that a bit later but I really love this hire for everyone involved. Arians has a close relationship with Bucs GM Jason Licht and was able to bring his own personnel over including defensive coordinator Todd Bowles and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. Both were mentored by Arians in Arizona and got the best out of Carson Palmer and the Cardinals defense in Arizona. Its remarkable how quickly Arians turned the Cardinals around but just like the Bucs, talented pieces were there, it just needed a coach to utilize and bring swagger to them like only Arians can.
How Will This Work for Jameis?
Many people are already calling Jameis a bust and I'd give him a little time to work under Arians before making that hot of a take. Arians again, is a self professed quarterback whisperer and his work hasn't gone unnoticed in NFL circles. From starting out as the coordinator for Peyton Manning in his early foundational years in Indy, to winning two Super Bowls with Big Ben, winning Coach of the Year (as an interim coach!!!!!) with Andrew Luck to reviving the lost career of Carson Palmer, Arians is truly a mastermind of the QB position and gets the most out of his QBs. Arians described in his book The Quarterback Whisperer: How to Build an Elite NFL Quarterback , that a truly elite quarterback is very impassioned and must have a heart that beats for the franchise.
Therefore he provides the rest of the team with blood and oxygen like the human heart does for organs. Now I'm not the type for ra-ra speeches and just believe chatter but Arians does speak the truth here. A great QB needs to be an extroverted leader that gets the best out of his teammates even when they are down or missed a certain cut on a route. Now Jameis has a lot of the qualities of a great leader. Unselfishness was on display last season with having to ride the pine for Fitz for a couple of weeks and his famous "Eat that W" speech in New Orleans still resonates as an extremely awkward but passionate moment of leadership none the less. Jameis is a born leader who offers up some of the best pep talks in the league and can easily fire up and get the best from his teammates. Although in the case of Ryan Jensen this year, it might have gone too far . All of the athletic tools Jameis easily has and running Arians read-rotation system shouldn't be too hard for Jameis to adjust to. With a strong arm and aggressive mentality, its going to be really exciting watching the Bucs offense in 2019 with Arians vertical schemes especially with the speed and vertical prowess of DJax.
With the flexibility to run a read-rotation, meaning Jameis can check at the line and choose his first look option based on what he sees from the defense. Jameis has all the attributes of a Bruce Arians QB and I believe Arians will mold him into an exceptional player in this league and that will improve the game of everyone including Mike Evans, OJ Howard, and DJax who will all benefit from this read-rotation system Arians implements. I believe Arians took the job with the belief that Winston is the franchise guy in Tampa and he can win and succeed as long as he has Winston as the guy.Jameis had his best season in 2016 throwing for 4,090 yards with 28 TDs to boot with 12 of those going to Mike Evans who became a fantasy superstar during that season. I can see Jameis topping that in the 2019 season with Arians as his coach who will utilize all of Jameis' first round talent to stack wins and improve the entire Bucs offense which has stagnated the past two years under inconsistent coaching and QB play.
Arians and Bowles are exactly what the Bucs needed to get the most out of their talented roster with stalwarts on both sides of the ball. I mean I'm not saying Winston is a Big Ben or Peyton Manning, but I think he has more athletic talent than Carson Palmer who had his best year under Arians finishing with over 4600 yds and 35 TDs with his highest QBR of his career at 77.1. With proper coaching to go along with that athletic talent I can see Jameis getting into this range for Tampa Bay and that would make Bucs fans and the fantasy football community glow with joy at the possibilities. My prediction for Jameis is that he finishes with around 4600 yds and lets say 32 TDs with only 10 Ints. Of course this is a projection for a full 16 game season for Jameis. Yes I know how much Jameis has been lambasted for his Turnover factory but in reality it isn't as bad as some other QBs residing in Florida in the NFL. Bruce Arians will be able to cut out a majority of the mistakes and bad reads Jameis makes from time to time as he tailors the offense to what fits Jameis and Winston will get the proper tutelage from the quarterback whisperer himself.
Impact on Fantasy Football Teams
Remember when Jameis was thought of as a QB steal going into last years draft? How about when Mike Evans was a top 10 pick in many 2017 drafts after finishing as the WR1 in 2016? Heh.. yeah I know it seems like I'm making all this up but I'm not. After 2016, the Bucs were pegged as the offense to own in fantasy football with an elite WR core of Mike Evans and DJax along with a lethal talented TE combo in O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. Jameis had just finished a season with an injured shoulder where he was on pace for over 5,000 yards and 30 TDs but alas the mirage was really just that a mirage. Marred with a bad O-line, inconsistent and sometimes non-existent run game along with bad coaching, Jameis faltered when high expectations were placed on him as he finished as the QB22 in 2017 and 2018. Evans fell all the way to a WR 18 in standard scoring formats in 2017 and while he did have a bounce back Top 10 finish this year, he still left fantasy owners wanting more.
Now with Bruce Arians in charge and a new vertical offensive scheme being implemented the mirage of a Bucs breakout season is slowly becoming a fierce reality. Winston and his strong arm can easily play a vertical style passing game to perfection and thinking about the fantasy numbers he could put up makes him a late round QB steal as many people will be looking elsewhere after two low QB2 finishes. Evans can easily top his WR1 finish in this type of offense and DJax if he stays, could be a lethal high to mid WR2 if Jameis quickly adapts and learns the system. I see a definite expansion on a TE 10 for O.J. Howard as I believe Brate will not return so those targets and TDs that Jameis usually looks to Brate for will go elsewhere to OJ. Humphries and Godwin who are fantasy experts dark horse sleepers what seems like every year may actually start to come through in this type of offense that has seen the best out of guys like John Brown and J.J. Nelson for periods of time. Making those names fantasy relevant is hard to do but Arians has done it and I believe it will be perfected in Tampa Bay this year.
Even with a struggling run game and O-line it's not like Jameis hasn't dealt with this before in his career. I don't think that will hamper the productivity of the passing game and if anything, Arians offense will give more holes for guys like Peyton Barber or Ronald Jones to run through. Defenses will have to respect the arm talent of Jameis and if the Bucs draft well on the O-line this year, the run game could have a kind of turnaround we saw from the Colts and Marlon Mack this year. Sure Quenton Nelson wont reenter the draft but if the Bucs can snap up a guy like Jonah Williams or Greg Little, the prospects of pass protection and run game look a lot better. Peyton Barber has the tools to be a successful running back and we still don't know with Ronald Jones but I'm sure Arians will utilize him way better than Koetter could dream of. As Arians said at his Bucs introduction press conference "don't tell me what a player can't do, tell me what they can do and we can build around that." Ronald Jones had a great banner year at USC rushing for over 1500 yards with 19 TDs while averaging close to 6.0 yards a carry! That took a drastic turn in his first year in Tampa Bay having 23 rushes for 44 yards and 1 TD which meant he averaged an appalling 4.9 yds per game. Yuck, yuck, yuck that's not Ronald Jones game though and anyone running behind that O-line is hard pressed to find a good hole to burst through and move those chains. Even Barber failed to average over 4 yards a carry and much of the run games struggle isn't due to a lack of talent but instead a lack of opportunity.
Bottom line what I'm trying to get at here is that Tampa Bay has one of the most underrated offenses in all of the NFL that has been waiting to explode and reach its full potential. Also the QB is extremely talented and when he's not stealing crab legs or groping Uber drivers, he can throw the pigskin all across the field with supreme arm talent and athleticism. Sure the decision making needs some work but Arians will figure that out when helping Winston get acclimated to the new vertical offense. Remember Arians made Larry Fitzgerald a top high end WR2 in standard (WR1 in PPR), along with having Carson Palmer on the same team finish as the QB 2 on the season in 2015!!! His one year with Luck resulted in a top 10 fantasy finish in Lucks rookie year with T.Y. finishing as the WR7. Arians was also in the desert for the rise of DJ to the likes of a RB1 finish in 2016 and an almost complete 1,000 -1,000 rushing and receiving season. Arians offenses are like a fantasy goldmine and talents like Mike Evans and OJ Howard are sure to eat in this new vertical system.
Take a listen to the first press conference of the coolest damn coach in the NFL.( For more content on the hires in Tampa check out buccaneers.com).
I fully buy into a 2016 like revival for this offense and having any Bucs on your team should give your reason for excitement in 2019. You may have been burned but the prediction came 2 years too soon, 2019 is the boom of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in fantasy football and in the NFL. They could easily have the kind of season the Cardinals had when Arians first appeared in Glendale with the right acquisitions in the draft and free agency. I look forward to seeing the Kangol hats on the sidelines at Raymond James Stadium and I think you'll be hearing a lot of cannon fire as this Buccaneers offense sinks it's opponents with some heavy artillery.
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