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Writer's pictureNathan Gunesdogdu

Fantasy Case Study: Adam Thielen vs. Stefon Diggs. Who Had the Better Year?






The Minnesota Vikings have arguably one of the best WR tandems in the NFL right behind Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster of the Pittsburgh Steelers(although maybe not for too much longer). Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are both highly talented wide receivers in the NFL and any team would be happy to have one of them not to mention both on the same team!! After coming off impressive seasons in 2017 for both players, including the first Pro Bowl appearance for Adam Thielen, there was a huge question as to which WR would emerge as the top fantasy wideout in 2018. Case Keenum, who was the QB for the Minneapolis Miracle run that took the Vikings into the NFC Championship game recently departed for Mile High and the acquisition of former Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins brought many questions to the Twin Cities.

The questions poured in from fantasy circles about whether Cousins would have the same trust and connection with Adam Thielen that Keenum had, which produced a record season for the wideout out of Minnesota State Mankato, having 91 receptions for 1,276 yards and 4 TDs. Multiple offseason reports had conflicting reports about Cousins favoring Diggs in offseason workouts and vice versa. It didn't help that both of these players were being drafted at roughly the same ADP which was late 3rd, early 4th round of most drafts. Most fantasy drafts/mocks I witnessed had Diggs or Thielen going right after the other despite Thielen having the better 2017 fantasy season with 149.7 standard fantasy pts compared to the 136.2 Diggs put up with Keenum throwing the ball. Everyone seemed to be divided in the offseason about who would lead the Vikings in targets from Cousins and this created a dilemma for many fantasy owners looking for a WR1 steal or the perfect WR2 complement in the early-mid rounds. Heck, there was even talk about Kyle Rudolph being a Top 5 TE option by the end of the season. One thing is for sure, neither one of these players disappointed fantasy owners this season as both finished as WR1s. The results speak for themselves and we are going to explore how each of these WRs fared in 2018 in fantasy football and who was better with Cousins at the QB position.




Adam Thielen (Hooked on a Thielen)

Thielen managed to exceed expectations for a second year in a row and will be making his 2nd straight appearance in the Pro Bowl as a result. Catching 113 of the 153 targets Cousins threw his way for a grand total of 1,373 yards and 9 TDs. If there were any talks of Thielen not producing on his 2017 numbers with Cousins at QB, those were quickly dissolved after 8 straight 100 yard receiving games to start the season tying the record of Calvin Johnson. Thielen avearged roughly 15.1 fantasy pts per game during this stretch. When you are mentioned in the same category with Megatron, you know you already had an incredible season and Thielen was red hot through the first 8 weeks. In 3 games he had 10+ receptions and in the Week 3 contest against Buffalo he saw nearly 20 targets from Kirk Cousins.


 

Join Baldy for a Breakdown of Adam Thielen's unbelievable start to the 2018 NFL season

 

Thielen was simply unstoppable during those weeks and led all fantasy wideouts in fantasy points. Through those 8 games, Thielen was on pace for a near 150 reception, 1,850 yds, 12 TD season which would have been incredible for an undrafted wideout at 28 years of age. Thielen was easily on pace for an All-Pro Season and was uber-consistent during those weeks. You were pretty much guaranteed a 15+pt performance out of your WR position which was a huge boost in getting out to an early lead in your fantasy leagues. The fever was high for fantasy owners as many became Hooked on a Thielen and he was quickly thrust into the spotlight as the top WR to own. There were talks of trading AB for him in some leagues!! That kind of consistency is what fantasy players strive to get out of their players and everyone who chose Thielen over many other wideouts in the 3rd and 4th rounds were rewarded and justified. However, once Thielen's streak of 100 yard games was broken by of all teams Detroit (Megatron's old team did him a solid), Thielen's owners would only see one more 100 yard game and a drastic dip in production from the wideout.


Tale of Two Halves- As Cold as Minnesota Ice



For as hot as Thielen was to start the season, he sure cooled off quickly during the midpoint of the season. Well, I mean it wasn't entirely his fault as the entire Minnesota Vikings team stagnated and struggled to finish the season and ended up missing out on the playoffs. Thielen's only memorable performance during the second half of the season was the Week 12 SNF encounter in Minnesota vs the Packers. There he had 8 catches for 125 yards and a TD. For the remaining seven games however, Thielen never got over 100 yards receiving and failed to reel in more than 7 catches a game. His average for that stretch saw him with about 5 catches a game for 56 yards!! That is not the wheelin dealin Thielen we saw earlier in the year and his drop seemed to coincide with the drop in play of Cousins as the year went on.



Ultimately though, Thielen had a tremendous year and could have easily been an All-Pro had the pace and quality of QB play out of Cousins held up. Bursting through the gates many owners were singing "Hooked on a Thielen" because of the studly, consistent performances he was putting up that got many owners seasons started with many a W. The second half was a let down especially in Week 15 where he only had 19 yards receiving and those 1.9 pts hurt a lot of owners who were counting on him in a matchup with the Dolphins. But you have to remember, the Vikings were giving Dalvin Cook a lot more work than he was seeing in the beginning of the season which meant a dip in production for all involved in the passing game. Cook had a total of 59 carries through the last 4 weeks of the season and was the clear beneficiary of a shift in the Vikings offensive game plans. I don't think Thielen disappointed as bad as people make it out to be, I mean the first half counts for a lot because without those crazily maddening consistent 10+ pt weeks, you might not even be in the playoffs. No one could count that a team that led the league in pass attempts through the first half of the season would suddenly shift back to trying to get Dalvin Cook the football. While the end result was disappointing, I look back on Thielen's fantasy season with awe as he finally broke out in a big way. At 28 years old, the man deserves a pay raise and if you look at his Twitter you'll see why. Thielen is not only a great player on the field but off it as well and I cannot wait to see what 2019 bring for him. Another year to gel with Cousins could represent HUGE numbers but I'll get to that a little later on in the year.




Stefon Diggs (Miracle Man)



The Minneapolis Miracle, what those words mean to Vikings fans I cannot explain it in pure words. The man, the myth, and the legend in the Twin Cities, Diggs will eventually have a statue erected in his honor outside of US Bank Stadium in the foreseeable future in remembrance of the greatest play ever in NFL history. (Okay wait.. please don't stop reading because of me.. I promise I'll stop gushing over that play). To get to the point 2018 was supposed to be Stefon Diggs breakout year right? All offseason reports said he looked great with Cousins and the big game performances last year added fuel to that fire. But so was Adam Thielen, a perennial overachiever who had been increasingly getting better each year with age like a fine wine. So who had the breakout? *ding*ding*ding If you answered both you would be correct!! Diggs had the first ever 1,000 yard receiving performance of his career going for 1,021 yds on 102 receptions for 9 TDs. He finished as the WR12 in standard scoring leagues and had some huge games during the season.



While at the start he wasn't as consistent as Thielen, Diggs put up great numbers for the entire season which is why this thing needs a case study in the first place. Speaking from that, Diggs also played two less games than Thielen did on the year which begs the question, what if Diggs played a full 16 games? He finished the year with 167.3 fantasy pts (standard league) and had a solid season all around. But yet, I fail to hear people mention his name or talk about him in early 2019 draft discussions. He finished higher than Odell Beckham, A.J. Green and Amari Cooper who are all WR1's on their respective teams. It could be argued that Diggs was playing as a WR2 behind Thielen this season. But it worked to perfection as both had over 1,000 yds and were 2nd only to the duo in Pittsburgh that we all know about( 361.6 total fantasy pts for Vikings duo, 413.6 for Pittsburgh). Diggs had four 100 yard receiving games with his most notable coming in Green Bay in Week 2, where he had 13 targets, catching 9 of them for 128 yds and 2 TDs. This translated into a 26.9 fantasy pt performance and was the top performance on the week.


 


 

I wanted to note that Diggs had great performances through Week 9 and then cooled off like Thielen, except that it feels different with Diggs. We didn't get eight straight 100 yd receiving games but instead got four scattered in back-to-back weeks throughout the year. Diggs didn't provide the wild consistency that Thielen did, but at the same time provided enough that he never truly busted your week when starting except the Week 3 debacle against the Bills where the former Terrapin saw 10 targets but only managed to haul in four for 17 yds. Diggs had the potential to be a top 10 WR easily if he played in all 16 games but only managed 15 with 14 starts. That is the main concern with drafting Diggs but this was the first year where I saw that health never really factored into the equation much. He has always had the potential to be a top guy in fantasy it's just been the injury bug question. If Diggs stays healthy, he is easily a WR1 in fantasy football and improving the QB position along with a mostly injury free season saw him have his first 1,000 yard season getting close to double digit touchdown in the process. I seriously don't believe that we've even come close to seeing the best from Diggs yet, and with him being almost 4 years younger than Thielen, he is by far the juicier sexier pick in a dynasty league/ keeper format. Diggs is just entering his prime and had Cousins not struggled so much down the stretch in big moments, Diggs could have had an even more memorable year.




Judge's Ruling:


(Click on an image to find out who won)


Look, as a Vikings fan it's hard to decide between either of these two guys. The Vikings have to be pleased that they took an undrafted free agent and a 5th round pick out of Maryland, paired them together, and received the impact and success they have had on the football field. You didn't go wrong if you chose either of these guys in the draft as both were WR1s in the 2018 calendar year. And if you somehow managed to get both on the same team, well then your either really good or you play with a bunch of morons because their ADPs were razor thin. As I stated above, much of the offseason chatter was who would have the better rapport with Cousins and that it was impossible for both to succeed and be WR1s in fantasy on the same team. Whelp, we'll have to excuse another miss by the various sources with megaphones, because like they've done their whole careers, Thielen and Diggs took the expectations, placed them into a cannon, and fired them all the way to fantasy stardom. Amazing performances from both men as they were over 1,000 yards and 150+ fantasy pts. The production was through the roof for the Viking passing game in the first 10 weeks of the season as there was only one game in that time they did not field a 100 yard receiver. Both players suffered the same drop in production once the focus shifted more onto running the ball with Dalvin Cook during the tail end of the season. It also didn't help that Cousins froze up in December when he was being counted on the most to deliver.


But specifically speaking for the 2018 fantasy football season, Thielen wins this one for me. He was wildly consistent with his games and averaged close to 12 fantasy points a game in 2018 whereas Diggs, while having more week winning, huge performances, was only able to average around 10.5 per game. It's not that big of a difference but what is; the consistency metrics. As you know, Thielen rattled off eight straight 100 yard games and had an incredible start to the season. You were almost guaranteed double digit point every week in fantasy with Thielen in your lineup. While later on the results disappointed the same happened for Diggs as well. Diggs did post two back-to-back 100 yard weeks but it wasn't sustained for a long stretch. I would still draft Thielen over Diggs going into this year purely because of the early connection he had with Cousins that I still feel like Diggs is laying the foundations for. However if your in a dynasty or keeper, Diggs is far and away the choice as he is 3.5-3.75 years younger than Thielen and is locked up for the long time future in the Viking ship. Both men had incredible 2018's to remember but Thielen's was just a teeny bit better due to consistent play and the locked in amount of targets he saw from Kirk Cousins.

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