The AFC North is setting up to be one of the NFL's most intriguing divisions ahead of the 2019 season. Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cleveland all have a reasonable shot at winning the division and will most likely only be separated by a handful of games. I expect both the AFC East and AFC South to have one playoff representative and depending on how the AFC West plays out, we could see three teams from the North going into postseason play.
4. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals seem to be the consensus basement dweller and I would have to agree. After a poor showing in 2018 they did very little to improve through free agency or the draft. In their first round they selected OT Jonah Williams from Alabama who will contribute to an offensive line that struggled last season to protect the quarterback. Williams was probably the headline acquisition which won't help a team rebounding from a plethora of injuries from last season and the losses of Vontaze Burfict and Tyler Kroft through free agency.
I would expect the defense to rank near the lower end of the league again as it did last year. That side of the ball will still have a decent defensive line led by Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap but not much else behind it.
The offense does have some potential if Andy Dalton comes back to the form he had a few years ago. He will need to establish a quick rapport with A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Tyler Eifert and John Ross to keep the team within contention with its potentially explosive offense. However, there are too many injury question marks within that group as Eifert and Ross have been frequently injured and Dalton and Green are coming off of injuries from last season.
The team will also be a little bit behind its counterparts in the division as it adjusts to a new coaching staff headed by Zac Taylor after Marvin Lewis left after a 15 year reign with the team.
I'm not a strong believer in all these NFL teams pursuing any young guy who has ever been within ten feet of Sean McVay. Taylor's resume isn't extensive or impressive by any means. Most recently, he was the Rams QB coach in 2018 which doesn't say much when Jared Goff's success has been attributed to the system that McVay has drawn up for him.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Putting the Steelers this low was an uncomfortable move because they are always an annual contender, however, I'm wondering if they let go of too much talent in exchange for team control. Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger undoubtedly want the team running through them which has led to the release of talents like Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown and the implementation of a philosophy geared toward younger and more impressionable players. However, I think this shift will cause some regression on offense which you can't really afford with a quarterback pushing 40 under center. Even though Roethlisberger is aging, the Steelers do have one of the best offensive lines in football that should keep him upright.
Running back James Conner who had a good 2018 season could be set up for a decline in 2019. He is a solid back but far from the dynamic game changer Bell was which was evident when his numbers declined in the second half of 2018. Teams should be able to create better game plans for attacking the Steelers' run game in 2019 which will make their offense more one-dimensional than it has previously been.
This leads us to the Pittsburgh passing attack. Antonio Brown has made it clear that he is not buying Juju Smith as a number one receiver in the NFL. I disagree because Smith has the skill set and size but number ones are created through the help from pieces around them which is what allowed Brown to thrive in Pittsburgh. As it stands right now, the Steelers have no other offensive pieces that will detract attention from Smith which will allow defenses to shut down the young receiver and only offensive threat. The Steelers are banking on the development of James Washington who was last year's second round pick and this year's third round pick, Diontae Johnson. They also acquired free agent Donte Moncrief who has been a pedestrian number 2 receiver at best and will most likely have similar results in Pittsburgh.
Although the Steelers will be downgraded on offense I do like what they have done defensively. I think they have the strongest linebacker group in the division with the additions of Mark Barron and Devin Bush. They both possess speed and mobility in the center of defense which will help improve against the pass and certain mobile quarterbacks they may face. Combined with edge rusher JT Jones and the emerging TJ Watt, the defense should be better than the squad they had last year which still ranked in the top 10.
Bottom line, the circus seems to have ended in Pittsburgh but they may have sacrificed too much talent. I think the team will still be competitive this year but they may need another off-season to build up their offense to the level it needs to be for a division crown.
Before we go any further this was really close a decision. Like I said, any of the top three teams could plausibly win the division, the Ravens and Browns just appeared to have stronger position groups than the Steelers at this point. Here is the position group breakdown I have done between Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Baltimore ranking them 1 to 3 (1 being the best).
2. Baltimore Ravens
I was tempted to put the Ravens as the number one, they are the returning champs and do seem to have the most stable team environment in the division which is a factor that should always be heavily considered. However, the Browns seem to be stronger in many important position groups that it puts them over the top.
As for the Ravens, they lead the division in four position groups: running back, tight ends, secondary and kicker. Although the Browns might have sexier names in their running backs group, the results the Ravens produced on the ground last season can't be ignored. Lamar Jackson remains the most electrifying runner in football and he will keep defenses guessing in a newly implemented offense created by Greg Roman. Knock him as a thrower but Jackson has the ability to bolster the stock of the running backs on the team by just being on the field.
The bruising backfield duo of Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards should keep each other fresh and grind down opponents. I expect the ground and pound philosophy and owning time of possession to still be central to the Ravens identity this year and an addition like Ingram only makes it easier. Lastly, drafting a speedy Justice Hill switches up the dynamic and could load the field with quickness and a passing option if he is used as a back on third downs.
Although the Ravens might not have the top end receiver right now like the Steelers and Browns, they do have a reliable tight end group that compliments Lamar's tendency to throw in the middle of the field. I also think recent draft picks Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin offer more upside then the recently drafted receivers on both the Steelers and Browns rosters.
The secondary will also be crucial for the Raven's success and the group looks promising with its talent and depth. The back end of the defense is head and shoulders above other division rivals but will it be enough to counterbalance the uncertainty of its linebackers and pass rush? Matt Judon must step up and be consistent from week to week and someone must step into the other edge rusher role if Jaylon Ferguson is not immediately ready to be an NFL starter. In the center of the defense, Patrick Onwuasor must not only transition into an every-down guy but a defensive leader.
An important advantage that may be overlooked is the impact of Justin Tucker. In a division with close games like the AFC North, a handful of games will be decided by kicking which seems to have become a precious commodity in the past few seasons. Pittsburgh will most likely drop a few games after cutting the inconsistent Brian Boswell and bringing on a rookie in Mathew Wright. Missed field goals have killed the team in the past and it will be hard to expect Wright to be perfect as a rookie. Cleveland will line up with Greg Joseph who went 17 for 20 on field goals and 25 for 29 on extra points. The Ravens will have a critical edge here and its also takes some pressure off Lamar Jackson and the offense to always have to push deep into enemy territory.
As for Lamar, I think he will be a winning quarterback in the NFL. For his second year he just needs to hit the layup throws and not turnover the ball. If he does this I think the Ravens can secure the division crown for a second year in a row, there are just a lot of question marks regarding potential performances right now for Baltimore.
1. Clevland Browns
I'd hate to give football's best team on paper anymore lip service than they've already gotten but they do look strong from first glance. At this point in time I would call Baker Mayfield the best QB in the division and he also has the most weapons around him. Wide receivers will be a strength for the team with the addition of the electrifying Odell Beckham and the returns of Jarvis Landry and Antonio Calloway who seemed to gel with Baker. David Njoku isn't a play-making tight end but he is serviceable and the team has a bevy of running backs they can plug into different game situations.
Although the team is flashy on the surface I have concerns about depth. If Baker were to go down the team would be left with inexperienced youth and journeyman Drew Stanton.
With RGIII the Ravens have the least amount of risk if they were to lose their starting quarterback, which sets them apart from others in the division. However, not factoring in future injuries the Browns have a daunting squad to go up against.
Their front seven on defense is poised to be the best in the division with emerging edge rusher Myles Garrett and other defensive supports like Larry Ogunjobi, Sheldon Richardson and Olivier Vernon. They also have returning starting linebackers with Christian Kirksey and Joe Schobert to hold down the middle. Cleveland also helped its secondary through the draft by getting Greedy Williams and Sheldrick Redwine who both had nice college careers and will compliment young players like Denzel Ward and Damarious Randall on the back end.
Many important position groups look to be in the Browns favor but lack of depth and team chemistry could be the biggest threats to their success. Tensions have already started with running back Duke Johnson wanting to be traded and the Browns denying his requests. It will also be intriguing how the loud personalities of Odell Beckham and Baker Mayfield mix. Kitchens has an integral role as a rookie head coached tasked with managing a lot of talent around him.
He was previously with the Browns as an offensive coordinator in 2018 but managing this new squad might be a task that is too much to handle. He seems to have a relaxed personality but that may lead to players like Odell and Baker taking over the team. It will be interesting seeing his leadership style during the season and whether he can have a hold on the team with his laid back personality. As long as the Brown's maintain cohesion through Kitchens' leadership and avoid any injuries to major players they should be set for a big 2019.
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