At 4:00 PM EST Wednesday, the MLB Trade Deadline came and went without Orioles GM Mike Elias trading a player off his big league roster. Many fans and industry experts alike expected reliever Mychal Givens and infielder Jonathan Villar to be moved, but as the day wore on and neither became subjects of trade speculation, it was clear Elias had a price in mind that no rival executive was willing to meet. With Givens having another year of control, there's no rush to trade him and the Orioles can hope he reverts to form and begins to rebuild his value. Villar is more of an interesting case. Likely to receive a raise in arbitration that pushes his salary north of six million dollars, it's anyone's guess whether the infielder is tendered a contract. If Elias decides to let Villar walk in the offseason for nothing, then not trading him this year for something of value looks like a questionable move.
Only time will tell. The Orioles still have 54 games to play in the 2019 season and with MLB's decision to do away with the August 31st waiver trade deadline, there won't be anymore trades. But that doesn't mean the 36-72 Orioles don't have several interesting storylines to follow as they play out the final two months of the season. There are plenty of reasons to keep a close eye on the team.
Would the Real Asher Wojciechowski (and John Means) Please Stand Up?
Put nicely, the Orioles rotation is kind of a mess right now, overshadowed only by how much of a mess the bullpen is. Dylan Bundy is learning how to pitch with diminished velocity and is a mixed bag most nights while two of the five rotation spots are filled by some combination of Aaron Brooks, Tom Eshelman, Gabriel Ynoa, and Jimmy Yacabonis (yikes). To make matters somewhat more discouraging, the final two members of the team's rotation could be overachieving and remaining two months of the season are likely to let us know.
Lefty John Means was the Orioles lone all-star representative this season. Prior to the break, he pitched to a sterling 2.50 ERA and finished his first half by dominating the Tampa Bay Rays for seven innings on July 3rd. In two of his three starts following the All-Star Break, Means has struggled, raising his ERA to 3.12 and taking a trip to the 10 Day Injured List. It's possible that the 26 year old's ineffectiveness was due to a medical problem, but his peripheral stats suggest he's due for regression. Although Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) isn't the greatest metric, it does a good job of acting as a warning sign for over- achievement and Means' FIP (4.47) is more then a run higher than his ERA. Furthermore, his strikeout rate (7.2/9IP) is low for a starting pitcher putting up such a low ERA and simply by watching Means pitch, it's easy to see that he pitches to contact most of the time. While not necessarily a bad thing, pitching to contact without an elite defense behind can make results luck driven and inconsistent. Means does have some things going for him though. His walk rate is low at 2.5/9IP as is his home run rate (1.3/9IP), so he does a good job of not needlessly putting men on base and limiting the long ball. Still, I think Means ends up regressing to more of a mid rotation pitcher during these final two months of the season. His profile in 2019 is actually strikingly similar to the career of former Oriole Wei Yin Chen who has similar peripheral stats and results. If Means has the Orioles career of Chen, that would be an incredible find for the team, even if he doesn't look as dominant as he did in the first half. The lefty will surely be an intriguing guy to follow.
However, I think an even more interesting storyline will be how the remainder of his rotation mate Asher Wojciechowski's season plays out. Although Wojo comes with a major small sample size disclaimer, he's pitched very effectively in six games (five starts) for the team and absolutely dominated in two of them. The thirty year old owns a 3.60 ERA, a WHIP below 1.00, and most impressively 37 strikeouts in just 30 innings pitched. On July 21st against the Red Sox, he carried a no-hitter into the 8th inning while striking out 10. Unlike Means, in limited action, the righty's peripheral stats support his effectiveness. He has a strikeout rate over 11.0 per nine. The questions with him begin with his track record. In a nine year minor league career Wojo owns a 4.03 ERA and 800 strikeouts in 951.0 innings pitched, meaning he wasn't a strikeout artist prior to his 2019 AAA stint with the Indians and his six game audition with the Orioles. Suddenly, this season, hitters are whiffing on his slider and he's benefiting from it. Whether or not this was an adjustment made by Elias' new development staff is unknown. But they did advise John Means to increase the number of change ups he threw and he's found success. Perhaps Wojo is experiencing a similar boost. These final two months will act as a 2020 tryout for the righty. If he continues to be effective, he could be a solid addition to a rotation that really doesn't have any impact pitching prospects coming until 2021.
Looking for Nuggets: Anthony Santander and Renato Nunez
I'll admit it, at the start of 2019 I didn't think any of the position players on the Orioles roster would be part of the next competitive core. 24 year old outfielder Anthony Santander and 25 infielder Renato Nunez are making me reconsider.
There's a bit of a small sample size disclaimer with Santander as he's only had 183 at bats. But he's made the most of them slashing, .301/.342/.443 while playing solid defense in the corner outfield spots. Based on the eye test, he certainly looks the part at the plate, with a good eye and solid at bats. His BABIP is .302 suggesting that he hasn't been extraordinarily lucky (league average is around .300) and based on his average exit velocity of (90.1 MPH) this year, his xBA and xSLG are .279 and .455, which are right around his actual slashline. It's safe to say that, at least thus far, he's earned his production. If he continues to do so over the final two months of 2019, Brandon Hyde can pencil him in as the everyday right fielder in 2020 and possibly beyond. With the struggles of Cedric Mullins, Santander's emergence is a welcome one, but at the end of the day I think his batting average will drop down to around .275-.280. I'm starting to think he turns into a solid, but unspectacular starting right fielder in the big leagues, which is more then I could say for him at the beginning of 2019.
Based on the lack of third base prospects in the Orioles system, Renato Nunez having a strong finish to the season would be quite the development for the organization. After a strong showing in April, Nunez fell off a bit in May and into June, before being relegated to DH'ing against lefties. It seems he made some sort of adjustment and after earning more playing time is slashing a blistering .297/.391/.608 over the last 30 days. His torrid stretch has raised his season line to a respectable .252/.320/.504 while his 25 homers lead the team. Nunez has always had power, even when he was prospect in the Oakland Athletics' system. The problem has been making consistent contact. He seems to have made a bit more of an effort to go the other way recently and it's paid off. Apparently Elias and Hyde believe enough in his month long hot streak as they've optioned Rio Ruiz to the minors and given Nunez more playing time at third, where he's been surprisingly serviceable in a small sample size. Under team control until 2025, Nunez could do a lot to accelerate Elias' rebuilding of the Orioles infield if he proves he can be more then just a homer/strikeout guy.
Other possible nuggets are catcher Pedro Severino and shortstop Richie Martin. Severino has unexpectedly broken out offensively, especially against lefties, despite having a minor league track record that wouldn't have predicted it. Like Santander, his exit velocities suggest that he's earning his production and he could be part of a tandem with Adley Rutschman in two years, catching forty or so games. The Orioles coaching staff has seemingly broken down Martin's batting stance and are trying to rebuild it. Recently he's looked a bit better at the plate. More of a longshot, if the shortstop, who is solid defensively, learns to hit, he could prove to be a valuable piece, especially with his speed. Let's see how August and September go.
Who get's the Call?
One of the more interesting storylines will be who the Orioles decide to call up in August and September. I don't expect anyone from AA Bowie or lower to make the jump to the MLB. Elias looks like his strategy is to make sure prospects have success at every level. So looking at the Norfolk Tides roster, there are only a couple guys that I see getting the call to the big leagues in the next few weeks: DJ Stewart and Austin Hays.
I'm not sure what more Stewart has to do get a promotion, especially with the recent injury to Dwight Smith Jr. He's absolutely dominated AAA this year to the tune of .284/.391/.546. He has nothing else to learn there and unlike Smith Jr., he plays average defense in Left and has more of a minor league track record that suggests he'll have success in the MLB. He should get the call soon, likely when Jace Peterson wears out his welcome for the fourth time.
Unlike Stewart, Hays has struggled in his short time at AAA since returning from injury. But at 24 and soon to turn 25, the Orioles need to see what they have in their top prospect. He has all the tools to be successful and has proven before that he can handle minor league pitching. I think he gets the call on September 1st as an audition to be the team's 2020 Center Fielder. The organization really has no other options at the position.
An outfield of Stewart, Hays, and Santander would be fun to see.
Time for Some Dumpster Diving!
Former Orioles GM Dan Duquette would be in his element right now. Following a very eventful Trade Deadline, contending teams began to designate players for assignment en masse in order to clear 40 man and 25 man roster spots for the veterans they acquired. While most of these guys aren't worth a look, there were some interesting names put on waivers yesterday that the Orioles should definitely consider claiming.
One such player is Oscar De La Cruz. The Chicago Cubs designated the former top prospect for assignment following their busy trade deadline. While he no longer projects to be a starting pitcher like he once did, he has very solid stuff that seems to play in a relief role. At his best he has a plus fastball that touches 97 MPH with late life and tailing action. His best secondary pitch is a curveball that once flashed plus but now is more of an average pitch. At the Cubs' AA affiliate De La Cruz has struck out 68 batters in 66.0 innings pitched to go along with a 1.17 WHIP. With two minor league options remaining, the Orioles could claim the righty and send him to Bowie to continue his transition to the bullpen or give him an audition for a role in the big league pen.
Elias already made an interesting waiver claim in Jose Rondon, a 25 year old infielder from the White Sox. While he's struggled during limited MLB chances, slashing just .197/.265/.282 this season, he's had success at AAA. In 2018, he posted a .785 OPS for the Charlotte Knights and in 2017 slashed .282/.330/.412 at AAA as part of the San Diego Padres' organization. So there seems to be something there offensively. As a solid defender who can play multiple positions, he's probably just competition for utility man Jace Peterson, but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets regular at bats at shortstop and displays some offensive ability. At the very least, he gives the Orioles another option at shortstop next year besides Richie Martin.
Stay tuned for my next series of articles where I evaluate the Orioles organization depth at each position.
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