In an article penned this morning, MASN's Roch Kubatko reported that two NL East teams, the Phillies and the Nationals, have serious interest in the Orioles' reliever Mychal Givens. While more teams will assuredly be interested as the deadline draws nearer, the two teams Kubatko listed certainly make a lot of sense. The Nationals' bullpen has struggled mightily this season to the tune of a National League worst 5.93 ERA. They are in desperate need of an upgrade, especially because they are within striking distance for the division (7 GB) even as their window for contention slowly closes. While the Phillies' bullpen is not as woeful as their division rival, it still ranks 10th in the NL and could use an upgrade. Philadelphia, however, has underachieved this season (48-45) and likely does not want to overpay for a rental in a season that probably won't end in a World Series title. Givens' two remaining seasons of control along with the fact that the Phillies' front office is littered with former Orioles' scouts and executes make him a logical fit.
At first glance, it doesn't look like Givens would bring back very much in terms of prospects. The righty owns a 4.50 ERA and has blown five saves in twelve opportunities. But, if we dig a bit deeper, Givens' peripheral stats tell a different story. His hits per nine and walks per nine (7.0 and 4.0) are in line with his career numbers and his strikeout rate (12.8/9IP) is a career best. He should be pitching more in line with his career norms, so what's the problem? Simply, Givens has has had bad luck with the longball. His 2.0 HR/9IP is more then double his career average of 0.9 HR/9IP. It's likely an aberration and one that has seemingly began to stabilize recently as the righty's given up just 1 run and no homers in his last six appearances while striking out ten.
So what does all this mean?
It means Givens still has value. His peripheral stats suggest he'll soon regress to his career norms as a solid, though not elite, relief pitcher and the uptick in strikeouts will be attractive to teams, especially in a now homer driven league. Houston Astros reliever Ryan Pressly, then on the Minnesota Twins, had a similar profile at last year's trade deadline. He was posting a career best strikeout rate while also owning a slightly inflated 3.40 ERA and the Twins received a pair of mid tier prospects (RHP Jorge Alcala and OF Gilberto Calestino) for him when they shipped him off to Houston. Alcala was the Astros #10 prospect while Calestino was ranked by some publications at #15. Neither was a top 100 prospect in baseball but each had upside.
Using the Pressly trade as a blueprint, let's see what the Orioles could receive from either the Phillies or the Nationals.
Philadelphia Phillies
RHP Mychal Givens for RHP Francisco Morales and LHP Cole Irvin
Morales, a former international signing, is the Phillies #8 prospect. He's a bit of project because both his command and delivery are inconsistent. Still, he owns a 3.90 ERA at Low-A and possesses an above average fastball that can touch 96 MPH to go along with a fringe plus slider. He also has a changeup that is still a work in progress but he's shown the ability to miss bats with 87 strikeouts in 62.1 innings pitched. Morales has mid rotation upside but there's also a chance he becomes a dominant late inning reliever with a fastball/slider combo. Irvin has a much lower ceiling but is more of a sure thing. He has a fastball, curveball, and slider that all rate average to go along with an above average change up. Ranked as the Phillies' #16 prospect, Irvin is likely a backend starter (3.76 ERA at AAA) but with the Orioles starving for pitching at the moment, he'd be a good second piece.
Washington Nationals
RHP Mychal Givens for RHP Wil Crowe, LHP Tim Cate, OF Jeremy De La Rosa.
The Nationals' farm system is, to put it lightly, not great. They are nearing the end of their current competitive cycle and like most teams in that position, their minor leagues were used to bolster the big league club. As a result, they would have to give up their higher ranked prospects to match an offer from a team like the Phillies. At only 17 and playing in rookie ball, De La Rosa is the real reason the Orioles make this trade. The Nationals' 2018 international signing is the organization's #11 prospect and although he's a long way off, scouts believe he has all the tools to be a very good major league player. A lefty hitter with plus bat speed, he's projected to hit for both average and power eventually, while also being fast enough to cover ground in center field. He's certainly someone to dream on and seems right up GM Mike Elias' alley. While Crowe and Cate are ranked as Washington's #4 and #5 prospects respectively, they aren't as exciting. Both project as backend starters, although Cate is left handed and only in A ball so he could always improve. Crowe is having some success at AA and AAA (3.82 ERA) and could improve the Orioles' big league starting pitching immediately.
Let us know what you think and keep an eye out for articles about the Orioles' other trade chips!
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