If there's been one constant throughout the entirety of the Orioles' 2019 season, it's the fact that the pitching has been abysmal. As a unit, the pitching staff owns a MLB worst 5.68 ERA. The rotation's been better, but only slightly, posting an unsightly 5.53 ERA to date. Outside of Dylan Bundy, who's been mediocre, and John Means, who seems to be regressing, the Orioles are filling the final three spots of their rotation with the likes of Tom Eshelman, Aaron Brooks, and Asher Wojciechowski. Put more simply, three out of five turns in the team's rotation are taken by two waiver claims and a righthander whose fastball tops out at 86 MPH. The results have largely been as one would expect and none of the three have an ERA below 4.89. To make matters worse, there are no reinforcements to call on at AAA Norfolk. The only true prospects there are Keegan Akin, who's struggled mightily in his first taste of AAA competition and Bruce Zimmermann, who has only two starts under his belt after a recent promotion.
So with a roster full of struggling pitchers and no reinforcements coming, the Orioles need to think outside of the box to improve their pitching. Ultimately, they should look no further for inspiration than their division rival Tampa Bay Rays. In 2018, the Rays at times featured only one true starter in their rotation, lefty Blake Snell, while the rest of the turns were taken by the pairing of an opener and a follower. To alleviate their pitching woes, the Orioles should try something similar with the final three spots of their rotation and fully embrace the opener.
When Asher Wojciechowski goes through the order for the first time, opponents hit only .091 off the 30 year old. This shoots up to .281 and then .313 when Wojo faces a team's lineup for a second and third time respectively. The trend can often be seen in game, as the righty seems to run into trouble in the fifth inning or so before being lifted by manager Brandon Hyde. So if Wojo only had to work his way through a team's lineup once or twice, he'd likely be more effective. This is where the opener comes in. By having the righty follow lefty reliever Richard Bleier, the Orioles would not only help Wojo be more effective, they would gain a platoon advantage, as the opposing manager would likely craft his lineup to face a lefty only to have the right handed Wojo enter after two innings. Furthermore, by having the soft-tossing Bleier open, it would likely upset the timing of hitters when they later faced the harder throwing righty for the first time. Together, Bleier and Wojo would hopefully get the Orioles through five or six innings while being much more effective then if Wojo had simply started the game on his own.
Like Wojo, Tom Eshelman currently has a tentative hold on a rotation spot, thanks in large part to the fact that the Orioles' options are limited. He's struggled during his time in the big leagues, posting a 6.53 ERA to go along with an inflated 1.65 WHIP. There is a slight silver lining, however. During his two outings as a follower, the soft-tossing right hander has been moderately successful. Against the Los Angeles Angels on July 25th, righty Jimmy Yacabonis opened the game, pitching two innings, before giving way to Eshelman who gave up just one run in four and a third innings pitched. Together, the two combined for six and third innings of two run ball. Not too shabby. The pair was again in action on August 4th, where Eshelman followed Yacabonis' one inning of work by giving up four runs over five innings. But, two of those runs were given up on homers in Eshelman's final inning when he was noticeably out of gas. Still, a combined four runs over six innings would be an improvement for the Orioles. While, I don't have numbers to back it up, my hunch is that the drastic change in velocity between Yacabonis and Eshelman makes the pairing work. Yacabonis, whose fastball sits around 95 MPH, throws about 10 MPH harder then Eshelman. So ideally, Yacabonis goes two innings, then Eshelman gets to face the bottom third of an opponent's order before turning the lineup over. The hitters, who first faced Yacabonis, then have to adjust to the sudden dip in velocity. By the time they do, the pair is hopefully through an effective five or six innings.
So hopefully that fixes the third and fourth spots in Brandon Hyde's rotation. The fifth is currently held by righty Aaron Brooks. In this reshuffling, he is pushed to the bullpen and replaced by the pair of Richard Bleier and Gabriel Ynoa. Much like, Wojo, Ynoa is most effective when working his way through the lineup for the first time. He holds hitters to a .243 average, which is respectable especially when compared to the fact opponents hit .356 against him the second time they see him. He's also seen a spike in velocity lately, hitting 95 MPH in recent outings, so he could benefit from the uptick in velocity compared to Bleier.
Here's a snapshot of the new rotation:
SP1: John Means
SP2: Dylan Bundy
SP3: Richard Bleier/Asher Wojciechowski
SP4: Jimmy Yacabonis/Tom Eshelman
SP5: Richard Bleier/Gabriel Ynoa
While going with three openers would be unconventional, the Orioles can afford to be unconventional. Their pitching staff is statistically speaking, a dumpster fire. Wojo, Eshelman, and Ynoa have proven they aren't big league starters and are probably better suited for long relief or in swingman role. Using openers allows Hyde to put the three of them in a position where the team can maximize their talents and they are most likely to have success. Having a reliever cover the first two innings effectively shields these guys from having to face an opposing lineup more then one or two times. At the very least, it might limit the number of 14-2 drubbings at the hands of teams like the Yankees.
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