With one week to go until the 2019 MLB trade deadline, it's been all quiet on the Orioles' trade front since starting pitcher Andrew Cashner was dealt to the Red Sox. There have been some industry rumblings and reliever Mychal Givens as well as infielder Jonathan Villar are likely to be donning a contender's uniform on August 1st. But reports of actual trades coming together have been nonexistent thus far. While we wait for Mike Elias to complete his first July 31st deadline as a GM, let's revisit Dan Duquette's 2018 firesale and see how the fifteen players the Orioles received are doing.
July 18th, 2018: SS Manny Machado to the LA Dodgers
The big one. This was the trade that truly signaled that the Orioles' leadership realized their competitive window had slammed shut and was locked up tight. The good times that reigned from 2012-2016 were over. It was a wild July last year as rumors swirled around the team's first generational talent since Cal Ripken Jr. Contenders were linked to the shortstop, then seemingly backed off, before reports resurfaced that they were back in on Manny. In the end, the Dodgers, looking to replace an injured Corey Seager, won the bidding war and rented Machado for the remainder of the 2018 season. The Orioles received five players in return, OF Yusniel Diaz, 2B/3B Rylan Bannon, RHP Dean Kremer, RHP Zach Pop, and INF Breyvic Valera.
So far, it looks like the Orioles have won this trade. Diaz is a top 100 prospect in baseball and, after struggling earlier in the season, has found his stroke at AA Bowie. The 22 year old is slashing .259/.336/.482 (good for an .818 OPS) and has all the tools to pencil him in as the right fielder of the future. He should be promoted to AAA Norfolk soon and could be in Baltimore in June or July of next season after the team secures an extra year of service time. His teammate at Bowie, infielder Rylan Bannon, has also impressed this season, hitting .266/.358/.414. While the slugging numbers are a bit low for him, he has been on a bit of a power surge lately and has now racked up 8 homers and 20 doubles on the season. His floor is a bat first utility infielder but it's not far fetched he becomes a solid regular at second in the mold of Jonathan Schoop. He likely stays at Bowie this season and starts next season at AAA along with his keystone combination partner Mason McCoy. The player that could become a real star from this trade is Dean Kremer. Loyal MoxyBoys readers know how high I am on the righthander and for good reason. After being injured to start the year, Kremer has joined his rotation mates in dominating the Eastern League, to the tune of a 2.67 ERA following today's start. With a plus fastball and plus curveball, Kremer will likely be a very solid MLB starter but if he further refines his change up, he could be an ace. Reliever Zach Pop, the fourth piece in the trade, underwent Tommy John Surgery and is out for the 2019 season. At the time of the trade he drew comparisons to Zack Britton with his
97 MPH sinker. He will be an interesting player to watch next season. Infielder Breyvic Valera was a throw in and got some playing time with the Orioles last season before being designated for assignment.
Overall, the Orioles did very well in this trade, especially given the fact Machado was a three month rental. I think it's very likely that all four players received contribute to the next competitive Orioles team. Manny was a great player and I enjoyed watching him play in Orange and Black. But as a certain John Waite once said, "I ain't missin' you at all."
July 24th, 2018: LHP Zack Britton to the NY Yankees
Britton was the second big rental piece the Orioles had to shop last year. Unfortunately, he was injured for a good chunk of the season and wasn't quite vintage Zack Britton. Still, the lefty did got on a bit of a run in July and netted the Orioles a couple interesting prospects in return. The packaged was headlined by RHP Dillon Tate but also included LHP Josh Rogers and RHP Cody Carroll.
Off the bat, the trade return was, predictably, less impressive then the one the Orioles received for Manny Machado. Tate was a former top starting pitching prospect whose status had fallen even before the trade. To start 2019, he struggled immensely as part of the Bowie Baysox rotation before being permanently moved to the bullpen where he's thrived. Armed with a solid fastball/slider combo, the righty has taken over as Bowie's closer and lowered his season ERA to a more respectable 3.48. Looking even closer, he owns a 1.62 ERA in his last 16.2 innings pitched and has struck out 14. He's seemingly found his role. Righty Cody Carroll has been out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Like Pop, he'll be another interesting reliever to watch next season, possessing a plus plus fastball and average slider. He really needs to work on his command but could be a solid piece in the Orioles pen. Lefty Josh Rogers, also underwent season ending Tommy John Surgery but struggled as a starter at AAA (8.51 ERA) and the big leagues (8.79 ERA).
Even if Carroll and Rogers were healthy, the trade was a win for the Yankees. Britton, while not his all-star vintage, has been a very good late inning reliever and key part in New York's dominant pen. Also, at the end the day the three players Brian Cashman gave up were not a huge price to pay, even if Tate and Carroll become high leverage relievers for the Orioles (Rogers is likely AAA depth). That's not to write off Tate or Carroll, they could become cogs in the bullpen of the next good Orioles team, but they were not prospects with incredibly high ceilings, even at the deadline last year. So I Can't Fight This Feeling that the Orioles could have done a bit better.
July 31st, 2018: RHP Kevin Gausman and RHP Darren O'Day to the Atlanta Braves
This trade was, in essence, a salary dump. GM Dan Duquette attached an injured Darren O'Day's contract to Gausman and accepted lesser prospects as a result. In return for the two pitchers, the Orioles received four players, C Brett Cumberland, 3B JC Encarnacion, LHP Bruce Zimmermann, and RHP Evan Phillips.
Out of the four players, only Zimmerman has impressed (Also check out that stash). In 18 games (17 starts) the lefty's pitched to a 2.58 ERA with 101 strikeouts in 101.1 innings pitched. He added velocity to his fastball in the offseason and it's become an average pitch to go along with a solid slider and changeup. While the hope is that he becomes another John Means, the lefty's ceiling is likely a backend starter but he probably has a future in the bullpen in the Paul Fry mold if he doesn't reach it. Reliever Evan Phillips, has been up and down with the Orioles this year but lacks impact stuff to be a consistent big league pitcher. He may one day lock down a middle relief role in the MLB if his command improves but he'll likely ride the AAA shuttle for the Orioles. Catcher Brett Cumberland was recently demoted to High-A Frederick after struggling to hit at AA Bowie. He's never been impressive at the plate in his minor league career and needs to improve defensively behind it. He has work to do to try to climb his way to the big leagues, but I doubt it will be with the Orioles. Encarnacion, the final piece, has some interesting tools but struggles to make consistent contact at Low-A and there are questions whether has the profile to stick at 3rd base. His future is very much anyone's guess.
While on the surface, this trade looks like a loss for the Orioles, I see it as more of a wash. Gausman has been his usual inconsistent self with the Braves and was injured earlier in the season. I'm a believer in Zimmerman and see him as a contributor to the next competitive Orioles team. At the end of the day, I wasn't the biggest Gausman fan when he was here. I thought he was a mess of inconsistency and untapped potential. He was a guy that relied on elite stuff and never showed the ability to really pitch at the big league level. So while some O's fans might be saying Don't You Forget About Me to the righty, I'm certainty not one of them.
July 31st, 2018: 2B Jonathan Schoop to the Milwaukee Brewers
The final trade of the 2018 deadline was a bit of a surprise. After a hot four weeks or so in June and July, Schoop was traded to the Brewers in the final moments before 4:00 PM on July 31st. In return, the Orioles received big league SS/2B Jonathan Villar, RHP Luis Ortiz, and SS Jean Carmona.
The 27 year old Villar has proven to be an adequate replacement for Schoop. He's been worth about 1.0 WAR and slashed .251/.315/.402 while playing passable defense at second (but underwhelming at short). He's a fun player to watch a brings a lot of energy but perhaps more importantly could bring back some value at the upcoming trade deadline. Ortiz was really the headliner in terms of prospects but has underwhelmed this season as a starter in Norfolk's rotation (6.83 ERA). He has an above average fastball that's hit 97 MPH in the past to go along with an above average slider and change-up that's a work in progress. The righty could benefit from a move to the pen where his stuff could play up in shorter stints. That's his path to the majors in my opinion. The final piece in the trade, Carmona, is interesting because of how athletic he is. At only 19, the infielder has room to grow and scouts think he'll hit for both average and power once he fills out. With a strong arm and an athletic build, he should stick at shortstop. As with almost all international signings, he could have serious upside or he could flame out. He's one to watch once he comes back from injury.
At the end of the day, this trade was a win for the Orioles, especially because Schoop performed so poorly for the playoff bound Brewers (53 OPS+) . Ortiz and Carmona still have upside, though limited in Ortiz's case, and Villar will probably bring back a prospect or international signing money in the next week.
Final Thoughts
The 2018 trade deadline was a solid start to the rebuild for the Orioles. While it can definitely be argued that they could have moved these players prior to last season and received better prospects, Duquette did a solid, though unspectacular job, with the hand he was dealt. I'm confident that seven of the 15 players received (Diaz, Bannon, Kremer, Pop, Zimmermann, Tate, and Ortiz) will contribute to the next competitive Orioles team in some capacity. Carmona, Encarnacion, and Carroll are interesting players to watch as well. Let's see if they can add to it before the upcoming deadline next Wednesday.
Comments