The Orioles have an interesting situation on their hands regarding 1B/RF Trey Mancini. He's in the midst of a career year, posting a 140 OPS+, and on pace to put up a career best 2.7 WAR for the season, according to Baseball Reference. Due in large part to the team's heavy marketing, Mancini has become the face of the rebuild and will likely represent the Orioles at the All-Star Game in mid July. But he's 27 years old and on a team that lacks established veteran players, Mancini has the highest trade value on the roster and would be under the acquiring team's control for three more seasons.
In a recent article penned by Roch Kubatko, Mancini expressed seemingly sincere interest in staying in Baltimore for the long haul. "I love Baltimore so much," said the first baseman,"I love playing here. And I think there would be nothing cooler than being here through some tough years and coming out the other side when we’re competitive again and going through all that." For his part, GM Mike Elias kept all options on the table, heaping effusive praise on Mancini but stating that he's open to all trade offers for anyone on the roster. Elias did say, however, that extending Mancini has crossed his mind.
There are two main obstacles that would make signing Mancini to an extension problematic: his age and the Orioles' future roster makeup. Realistically, the team will be competitive again, meaning competing for a wild card spot at best, in 2022 with the arrival of pitching prospects now pitching at Delmarva, namely Grayson Rodriguez and D.L. Hall. At that point, Mancini with be in his last year of arbitration and approaching 31 years old. To keep him for the next competitive window, he would have to sign an extension that likely keeps him under contract into his mid thirties. There is significant risk of decline for players after they pass 30, just ask Mark Trumbo. It could be argued, however, that Mancini's skill set at the plate will age favorably. He doesn't strike out at an alarming rate, has a good batting eye, and will take walks. Furthermore, his swing is more conducive to hitting line drives, then one designed to hit homers. However, he would likely lose a step in the outfield which for an already below average fielder would make him unplayable in right field. He would have to be moved to first base or DH, which brings us to the next problem with extending Mancini.
Chris Davis is the elephant in the room here, as usual. With the first baseman signed through 2022 and the team seemingly unwilling to release him, there is a roster logjam at 1B/DH , especially with Renato Nunez (only 24) receiving the majority of the DH at bats. Ryan Mountcastle, the team's top prospect, is crushing AAA pitching and slated as the first baseman of the future. He will likely break camp with the team next year. There seems to be little room for Mancini. Of course Davis could be released and with each historically bad season inches closer to being given his walking papers. More interestingly, Elias hinted at giving Mountcastle reps in the outfield, which would open first base for Mancini after Davis's inevitable exit.
Trading Mancini is the second option. But how much value does he really have? Few teams in the race this year have a serious need at first base. The Indians likely have the biggest but who knows if they will still be in the race when July comes around. And finding right handed power isn't terribly difficult, just look at the Yankees with Luke Voit, the Twins with C.J. Cron, and even the Orioles with the aforementioned Nunez. First Baseman just aren't as valued as they once were. It would take a GM falling in love with Mancini or an unlikely bidding war for the Orioles to get back anything close to real impact talent (i.e a top 100 prospect). Mancini is a good player but I would bet teams are skeptical if this 140 OPS+ Mancini is the real deal or if this just a career year.
The final option, and the most likely, is that Elias simply lets Mancini play out his remaining years of control in an attempt to gauge Mancini's real value. If he puts up another season or two like his current campaign and the Orioles improve more quickly then expected, an extension could be explored. At the same time, if that happens, and the rebuild progresses more slowly, look for the first baseman to be dealt.
It will be an interesting story line to follow. One final variable is the team's marketing department, who have been aggressively portraying Mancini as the face of the team. Whether this could impact the handling of Mancini's future is unknown, but it is something to keep an eye on.
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