With the end of June approaching, one aspect of GM Mike Elias's rebuilding strategy has become clear. Any prospect in the high minors that has a chance to be an all-star caliber player won't be called up to the big league club until they dominate the minor leagues at every level and meet all of the organization's developmental goals. First baseman Ryan Mountcastle, for example, owns a slashline of .308/.331/.508 at AAA Norfolk but has only walked 9 times in 260 at bats. Until he shows a more selective batting eye and the ability to get on base, Mountcastle will stay at AAA. Similarly, the demotions of outfielders Austin Hays and Yusniel Diaz, both following strong spring training performances, illustrated the organization's newfound focus on development of its elite prospects.
While holding down impact players will give the team another year of control and better prepare prospects for the big leagues, it is creating a major problem at the MLB level in 2019. Simply put, the Orioles have already spent their bullets. Any non-elite prospects that could improve the team, albeit only slightly, have already been called up and the team has failed to get better. In the outfield, Anthony Santander and DJ Stewart (now on the IL) are going to get long looks from the organization. Center fielder Cedric Mullins initially broke camp with the club but struggled mightily and was demoted to AAA Norfolk. Catcher Chance Sisco was recalled recently and has been good in a small sample size, putting up a .361 OBP and an .878 OPS. But after these three, the cupboard at Norfolk is empty. Most positions are held by minor league free agents and fodder from the waiver wire. The only prospects on the roster are the aforementioned Hays and Mountcastle.
Meanwhile, the big league club lacks even a replacement level CF, with Keon Broxton putting up a -0.6 WAR and sporting an OPS+ of 39 (for comparison league average OPS+ is 100). Although he can be forgiven somewhat having never played above AA, SS Richie Martin is struggling mightily at the plate as well and has matched Broxton's OPS+ of 39. Third base has been a rotating door of fringe-average players in Rio Ruiz and Hanser Alberto. Second base, held down by Jonathan Villar, has seen above replacement level production. But with Villar likely to be dealt at next months trade deadline, another hole in the lineup will open. And the reinforcements aren't coming. The organization simply lacks options. The only infield prospects at the high minors are 2B/3B Rylan Bannon and SS Mason McCoy, each at Bowie. Both players are having strong seasons with Bannon owning a slashline of .280/.365/.407 and an OPS of .772 while McCoy is above average defensively and has been on fire with the bat, hitting .329/.391/.437. But each player has concerning defects in their games and with the organization slow playing prospects, it's unlikely we see them in Baltimore this year and perhaps not even next year. In other words, the Orioles will be going with what they have and unless they get MLB ready infielders in mid season trades (seems unlikely), there will be little improvement.
f the position player situation doesn't inspire much hope, the big league club's pitching depth is a roaring dumpster fire. There is long term hope, however. Bowie's rotation is full of prospects that are having success as are parts of the rotations of Frederick and Delmarva. But Norfolk's is...well it's not great. There's one prospect in the rotation, Keegan Akin, who is having an okay season (4.29 ERA and 80 SO in 65 IP) but seemingly isn't highly regarded by Elias and Company. He wasn't invited to MLB spring training, even after a strong season at Bowie in 2018. Akin will likely have to dominate AAA hitters before he gets the call this season. The only other starter pitching well is recently acquired Tom Eshelman who has had two strong starts since coming over from the Phillies. He's likely the next man up for an audition for the fifth starter spot. But after he and Akin, the pitching staff is full of retreads, minor league free agents, and former prospects, many of whom are really struggling. Norfolk has a team ERA of 5.54, good for worst in the league. So while the Orioles' MLB pitching staff, especially the bullpen, has performed terribly, the cavalry isn't coming and the situation will likely get worse with John Means now injured and Andrew Cashner and possibly Dylan Bundy soon dealt at the Trade Deadline.
And this is where I have to offer a mild criticism of Elias's offseason strategy. I understand not wanting to sign any long term or expensive contracts during a rebuild. Those resources are better invested in player development and the organization's burgeoning analytics department. But why not sign a couple veteran middle relief pitchers or cheap starting pitchers to prove it one year contracts? At least then, the team's lack of depth wouldn't be so openly exposed and if any of the veteran pitchers perform well they could have been traded at the deadline for something of value, perhaps international signing slots to help the rebuild.
Instead, the team is again historically bad and on its way to another number 1 pick, which I guess in the long run is a plus for the organization. But it sure is painful to watch and isn't getting better anytime soon.
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