July will be an exciting month for Orioles fans. Tomorrow, July 2nd, marks the beginning of the International signing period and rookie John Means will represent the club at next week's all-star game on July 9th. Perhaps more importantly, Major League Baseball's trade deadline is at the end of the month on the 31st and unlike previously will be the last day teams can make trades this season. The league recently did away with the August 31st waiver deadline. With the Orioles trying to add as much talent to the organization as possible, fans expect them to be active in dealing veterans at the deadline. But which of the team's few remaining veterans even have enough value to be traded? Let's take a look.
Likely Traded:
There are only two players on the Orioles' 25-man roster that will almost definitely be gone by the time August 1st rolls around: starter Andrew Cashner and infielder Jonathan Villar. Neither is likely to bring back a terribly exciting return, however.
Cashner has experienced an uptick in velocity and been worth 2.2 WAR while reestablishing himself as a reliable backend starter. To date he is 8-3 with a 4.03 ERA in 16 starts for the Orioles. The righty is currently making 8 million dollars in 2019 and has an incentive based 10 million dollar option for 2020 that vests if he finishes with 187 innings pitched, a number he has never reached in his career. With starting pitching always at a premium at the deadline and the Orioles seemingly wanting to cut payroll during the early stages of their rebuild, Cashner will likely be traded. Three American League West clubs, the Oakland Athletics, the Texas Rangers, and the Los Angeles Angels, could all be interested in the righty's services.
Prediction: Cashner returns to the Rangers, who are within striking distance of the Astros and are in desperate need of a starting pitching upgrade. He will be only one of several veteran pitchers they acquire at the deadline.
Although the July market for middle infielders isn't usually as active as the one for starting pitching, Jonathan Villar will still likely to be traded. He is 28 years old, due for a raise in arbitration, and not in the Orioles' longterm plans. Although his .741 OPS and average glovework aren't exceptionally exciting, they do represent an upgrade for teams like the Padres and Indians who have struggled to get production from their second basemen.
Prediction: Villar is traded to the Indians who view him as an inexpensive, though small upgrade over struggling Jason Kipnis.
The Maybes:
Dylan Bundy's had an interesting season thus far. He really struggled in April and May before making a series of pitch selection adjustments and improved in June. All of it has added up to an okay season for Bundy. He is 3-10 with a 4.91 ERA and although he has an impressive 90 strikeouts in 84.1 innings, the righty has also surrendered 19 homeruns in just sixteen starts. But Bundy is not a free agent until 2022 and has shown an ability to pitch effectively without elite velocity. For a team looking for a young controllable pitcher, Bundy could be worth the Orioles' asking price, especially if the acquiring team thinks they have found a way to limit the number of long balls Bundy gives up.
Prediction: I think Elias likely holds on to Bundy. If his recent adjustments lead to a strong second-half, Bundy can still be traded in the off season.
Mychal Givens's season has been a struggle to say the least. He currently owns a 5.06 ERA and five blown saves in eleven opportunities. Like Bundy, he has been hurt by the longball, surrendering eight in 32.0 innings pitched. But the stuff is still there and Givens has posted a career best 12.9 SO/9 this season. For a team that is set at closer and looking for an impact middle reliever Givens could prove to be an attractive option.
Prediction: There will be a number of team's looking relief help come deadline time and as a result there could be a number of landing spots for Givens, but keep an eye on the Braves, the Cardinals, the Red Sox, and even the Yankees.
Dwight Smith Jr. might be traded simply due to a roster crunch. Anthony Santander has earned playing time over the last few weeks and DJ Stewart, who the club clearly wants to take a long look at, should be returning from injury in the next month. There will be too many outfielders and not enough spots. Smith Jr. has been about average with the bat this season, posting a 101 OPS+, and below average with the glove in left field. He does have good speed and could be an attractive option for a team looking for a lefty bench bat.
Prediction: Smith Jr. is traded to a National League Team for International Signing Bonus slots.
The Longshots:
The two other players that could be mentioned in trade rumors are 1B/OF Trey Mancini and starter John Means. Neither are likely to be traded however. Means, although 26, is not a free agent until 2025 and has been a revelation for a club starved for good starting pitching. He could be a big part of the club's next competitive team. Mancini just doesn't seem to have a market. Although his OPS is .901, he is a bad defensive outfielder and no contending team really has a need at 1B or DH where he would represent a significant upgrade. He could always be moved in the offseason and is not a free agent until 2023.
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